A report from ARK Investment Management forecasts that Elon Musk’s SpaceX Starship business, which carried out its tenth test flight on August 26th, is likely to be valued at some $2.5 trillion (€2.1tn) by the end of the decade.
The rocket’s upper Starship spacecraft, which is designed to one day carry cargo or humans to Earth orbit and beyond but flew with only dummy payloads for this test mission, made a significant stride forward and made a soft water landing in the Indian Ocean.
The Starship team of engineers and technicians is now preparing for Test Flight #11.
ARK says that the August launch achieved all major objectives and extending its ~10-year lead over competitors. For the first time, the rocket launched eight Starlink simulators of next-gen v3 satellites. Stressed intentionally during re-entry, the rocket gathered critical heatshield and structural data before falling into the Indian Ocean.
“After the launch, Elon Musk disclosed plans for Starship v4 and putting SpaceX on track for the commercialization and reusability in ARK’s base case model for 2027 and a ~$2.5 trillion valuation in 2030,” said ARK.“In our model,” added ARK, “measured in bandwidth per kilogram (Gbps/kg), Starlink’s v3 performance is the most sensitive input, with satellite mass still unknown. ARK will be monitoring this performance carefully.”
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