The latest edition of Novaspace’s Prospects for the Small Satellite Market market intelligence report forecasts robust growth in the small satellite (smallsat) industry, projecting a market value of approximately $113.3 billion (€107.9bn) over the next decade. This expansion will be fueled by the replenishment of satellite constellations globally and the rising complexity and cost of government-driven single-satellite missions.
“The smallsat market remains primarily driven by constellations, a highly opportunistic but challenging segment,” commented Alexandre Najjar, lead analyst for the report. “While numerous new constellations are in development, many are expected to face scope reductions or consolidation due to inflationary pressures and intense competition, which jeopardise their long-term viability.”
Despite these headwinds, the report emphasizes the strategic role of smallsat constellations in capability-building for emerging players in the space sector. Recent geopolitical tensions and conflicts have underscored the critical importance of commercial satellite communication (satcom) and Earth observation constellations. These systems have demonstrated their value in active combat scenarios, while interest grows in new technologies such as direct-to-device (D2D) and low Earth orbit positioning, navigation, and timing (LEO PNT) constellations.
The report also highlights an increasing trend toward regional demand retention and vertical integration, particularly among emerging countries. These nations and operators are not only acquiring smallsat systems but are also investing in domestic manufacturing and launch capabilities, effectively reducing export opportunities for commercial players. As a result, the addressable market for many commercial smallsat companies will become more constrained, with long-term government contracts serving as a key growth driver.
The smallsat industry continues to demonstrate resilience despite supply chain challenges, inflationary pressures, and the exclusion of Starlink and Starshield from the report’s scope. With increasing investments from defense agencies, strong demand from Asia, and the strategic importance of smallsat systems highlighted by global geopolitical tensions, the market remains dynamic. As government contracts and new commercial entrants drive growth, the smallsat sector is poised to play a pivotal role in shaping the future of space-based capabilities worldwide, concluded Novaspace.