By Chris Forrester
Brian Manning, CTO and Co-founder at Xona Space Systems delivered a fascinating overview on the state of the satellite navigation sector for delegates at the Silicon Valley Space Week’s MilSat Symposium. He focused on the race for next-generation PNT technology, which was already part of Xona’s role given that his company’s PULSAR “direct-to-Device precision solution was designed to deliver more than 100 improvements in accuracy and resilience direct to GPS devices from a constellation of small satellites in LEO. However, he cautioned that China, Russia and even Europe could be winning the race for next-generation GPS.
Manning explained that Xona and this PULSAR came from a world of autonomous vehicles and which needed very high accuracy and navigation possibilities. He reminded delegates that today’s GPS has been around for quite some time (First launch in 1978 and fully operational in 1993) and followed by Russia’s Glonass which was first launched in 1982. China joined a few decades later, and Europe’s Galileo (first launch in 2011). He said that all these follow-on services were echoes of the initial GPS development.
He said that GPS has frequently been called the ‘Gold Standard’ of navigation and it wears that crown because of its reliability. “But of late it has fallen behind. China has more satellites. Galileo is more accurate. China has better high-performance services including messaging which does not feature on GPS at all.”
Manning added that these super-powers were pouring billions of dollars into their services. While the annual economic impact of GPS in the private sector in the US alone was placed as being worth more than $500 billion by 2024, and the value of GPS equipment sold annually was more than $20 billion in Xona’s estimates.
“The way we drive is evolving, the way we farm is evolving, the way we travel, and work and fight. All are evolving and very, very quickly. The one common thread is that every device, every application needs to know where it is with ahigh degree of accuracy and reliability. This is more than the current navigation systems can provide. This has created a very large gap in the market both on the defense and commercial sides.”
Autonomous vehicles need centimetre accuracy to know which side of the road they are on, and whether they are in the middle of a lane. The service also needs to be available all over the world and to be affordable. It won’t find a market if it costs $1000 per device. But if something were to happen to GPS then the knock-on would not only be catastrophic for the commercial world but also for the military. There needs to be a back-up.
The gap can be filled with LEO-based PNT which will be stronger and more resilient and robust against interference and achieve centimetre levels of accuracy. The LEO-based solution could, if needed, be fully independent from GPS.
But it isn’t just us in the US who have identified this gap in the market. China is putting $1.3 billion into its systems, while Europe’s ESA/Galileo is committed to spending $170 million on its upgrades. The US, through us, Xairos and Trustpoint is spending just $80 million.
Manning said the technology in the US is well advanced, and the US has launched 3 satellites although more are in the works. But China has launched 35 and it is China which is now pulling away from the US and China’s influence over US industries is growing. Commercial customers in the US say they are dependent on Chinese system and are essential to remain competitive. What has happened is that the US has allowed foreign entities to ignore and bypass our laws and to broadcast their services into the US and allowing its customers to get hooked onto these services and increasing their influence over US markets. These new LEO systems are not authorised for use in the US, but China has made no secret that it is broadcasting these services. In my view we are on the wrong side of a fight.
Manning said this was now a critical national need, although he predicted that the ‘new’ GPS would see a SpaceX-type giant emerge because of the need in the market. “Will it be Chinese, or Europe? The US space industry is very good at developing world-beating products to serve its markets. I don’t believe that GPS is any different. It is a race, but the US, if it wants to win, can win.