In the increasingly congested and contested space environment, Space Logistics and Space Situational Awareness markets are increasingly seen as a tool of flexibility and safety for satellite operators, although most of them are still waiting for a strong demand signal, finds Novaspace in its new Space Logistics Markets report 3rd Edition: SSA Focus.
Novaspace, the result of the recent merger between Euroconsult and SpaceTec Partners, finds that space safety and sustainability concerns are driving cautious interest for In-Orbit Services (IOS) and commercial Space Situational Awareness (SSA) in its latest Space Logistics Markets report and projects around $4.6 Billion in commercial revenue over the decade.
Indeed, with another 28 000 satellites to be launched in the next decade (a +76% increase compared to last decade, from Novaspace’s report Satellite to Be Built & Launched 2023, adding to more than 6 000 active satellites and 130 million space debris (only 35 000 of which large enough to be tracked), satellite operators see a growing need for SSA solutions enabling safer spaceflight. Novaspace estimates that commercial SSA services and data sales will generate some $2.5 Billion in revenue for providers over the next decade.
Meanwhile, defense agencies are considering satellite refueling to increase mobility in the congested and contested space environment, sustainability-focused governments are buying demonstration space debris removal but face its very high price tags and difficult coordination in space, and OTV operators are looking for their market amid incomprehensible launch costs and present-day capacity limitations. Together, these markets should total around $1.7 billion in revenue over the decade (less than 0.5% of satellite manufacturing and launch value expected over the same period for reference).
Finally, the report addresses present and future structural changes in launch market, including the SpaceX monopoly on heavy launch in the West, the imminent introduction of the Starship super heavy launcher, and the race of small launchers to heavy follow-ons to return and intensify competition. It provides a detailed launch forecast over the decade, with an average 210 launch per year, and depicts the main evolutions of the launch industry to expect ahead.
Gabriel Deville, Novaspace Consultant and Editor of the report, said, “Although there is still a long way to go before space logistics become a buyer’s market, the fast-changing and complexifying space environment is paving the way for ambitious demonstrations with the potential to redefine the economics of space in the long-term”.
Euroconsult’s Space Logistics Market report 3rd edition is out now and a free extract available to download, featuring global trends and forecasts across six identified market verticals.